Ryan Grim recently asserted that Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is essentially “unskewing” the polls in a manner that many right wing pundits (wrongly) did in 2012 to show a landslide Romney victory.
Silver was not impressed, firing back with this tweet:
This bickering is a symptom of a very uncertain election outcome. A few academic models give the election to Trump, while Moody’s gives it to Clinton in a landslide. Polling aggregates are a little less ambiguous, with each from CNN to Real Clear Politics showing a Clinton lead of varying margins. Portending the war of words, the two forecasts on opposite ends are from Huffington Post and FiveThirtyEight, with the former giving Clinton a 98% chance of victory and the latter a 65% chance. While both tilt toward the Democrat, the state-by-state predictions will likely settle this feud: as of now, Silver weights Nevada, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio toward Trump, while HuffPost tilts these states in Clinton’s favor. Because both models work on probabilities, we’ll have to see which candidate these states break for on Election Day to determine which analysis reigns supreme. Since Huffington Post has already bested FiveThirtyEight in its primary predictions, Tuesday’s results could give us both a new President and top polling virtuoso.
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